What criteria should I use to evaluate expansion options?

Demand, fit with your current business, entry cost, competition and time to revenue cover most cases. Add a regulatory row for new countries.

Who should set the weights?

The people accountable for the outcome, before the options are presented. Weights set after a pitch tend to favour the pitch.

Where should I expand my business next?

Expansion options rarely compare cleanly. A new country has the biggest market and the highest cost to enter. A new product line reuses what you have but might split the team. Each option looks best when you are the one presenting it.

A weighted matrix makes the trade explicit. Leadership agrees what matters and by how much, scores each option against the same rows, and argues about the numbers instead of the pitch.

Open the tool with this question filled in. Two to five minutes, no account.

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What should you weigh?

Five factors cover most versions of this decision. Rename them, drop the ones that do not apply, and add your own. Phrase each so a higher score is always better.

Demand: Evidence people will pay: pre-orders, waitlists, inbound requests, search volume.
Fit with what we do: How much of the current team, supply chain and brand carries over.
Low cost to enter: Capital, hiring, licences and the months before break-even.
Room against competitors: How crowded it is, and whether you have an edge there.
Fast time to revenue: How soon money comes in, which matters more the shorter your runway.

What does it look like worked out?

Three options: a second city at home, a new country, and a new product line. Weights run 1 to 10, scores 1 to 5.

Worked decision matrix for: Where should I expand my business next?
Factor	Weight	Second city	New country	New product line
Demand	9	3	5	4
Fit with what we do	7	5	3	3
Low cost to enter	5	4	1	3
Room against competitors	4	3	4	4
Fast time to revenue	3	4	1	3
Total		106	90	97

Each total is score times weight, added down the column.

Second city wins by 9 points. The second city wins on everything except demand. The new country has the biggest market and comes last. That is the usual shape: the largest opportunity carries the largest cost, and the matrix shows whether the demand is big enough to pay for it.

Where do people go wrong?

Scoring demand on hope. Score demand from evidence you already hold. If you have none for an option, score it low and go and get some.

Ignoring runway. Time to revenue deserves a heavy weight if you have months of cash, and a light one if you have years.

Common questions

What criteria should I use to evaluate expansion options?: Demand, fit with your current business, entry cost, competition and time to revenue cover most cases. Add a regulatory row for new countries.
Who should set the weights?: The people accountable for the outcome, before the options are presented. Weights set after a pitch tend to favour the pitch.

Ready to weigh your own?

The question and starter options come filled in. Change anything. AI suggests factors; the answer comes only from your weights and scores.

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